Man v machine: Half of NSW jobs at risk of computerisation
Source: Daisy Dumas
Aircraft engineering jobs are among those expected to become more affected by automation. Photo: Jessica Shapiro
Machines may soon outperform humans in more than half of all NSW jobs, with admin workers, technicians and labourers in Sydney's west most likely to face upheaval at the hands of emerging technologies.
Two-fifths of NSW jobs are at high risk of being lost to computerisation and low- to middle-skilled workers across the state are expected to bear the brunt of pain brought by artificial intelligence, cloud computing, the Internet of Things and big data, according to a NSW government briefing paper released in December.
The Future workforce trends in NSW: Emerging technologies and their potential impact report hones in on a sweep of electorates in Sydney's west as being most vulnerable to computerisation, with Auburn, Lakemba, Bankstown, Fairfield, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Campbelltown, Blacktown, Mount Druitt and Londonderry set to lose thousands of jobs to automation in the next 10 to 15 years.
On average, 51.58 per cent of all NSW jobs are at risk of computerisation.
Occupation (by ANZSCO code) Probability of job loss Size of NSW workforce Jobs at risk
Accommodation and Hospitality Managers 12.1% 185 22
Accountants 93.6% 52245 48921
Accountants, Auditors and Company Secretaries 93.6% 173 162
Accounting Clerks 94.8% 35964 34079
Actors, Dancers and Other Entertainers 14.3% 1918 275
Actuaries, Mathematicians and Statisticians 47.4% 1866 884
Advertising and Marketing Professionals 23.5% 19515 4578
Advertising, Public Relations and Sales Managers 6.5% 37648 2466
Aged and Disabled Carers 10.4% 28394 2949
Agricultural and Forestry Scientists 5.4% 1430 77
Agricultural Technicians 56.8% 488 277
Agricultural, Forestry and Horticultural Plant Operators 91.2% 2220 2025
Air Transport Professionals 38.8% 3533 1372
Airconditioning and Refrigeration Mechanics 35.8% 5560 1988
Aircraft Maintenance Engineers 67.9% 5696 3869
Ambulance Officers and Paramedics 34.5% 3603 1244
Amusement, Fitness and Sports Centre Managers 10.7% 2168 232
Anaesthetists 4.3% 1128 48
Animal Attendants and Trainers 91.7% 3653 3351
Aquaculture Farmers 93.8% 508 477
Aquaculture Workers 64.9% 53 34
Architects and Landscape Architects 8.9% 6078 541
Architects, Designers, Planners and Surveyors 8.3% 1684 139
Architectural, Building and Surveying Technicians 79.1% 13360 10567
Archivists, Curators and Records Managers 16.5% 1594 263
Artistic Directors, and Media Producers and 9.1% 4925 446
Arts Professionals 14.9% 670 100
Auctioneers, and Stock and Station Agents 39.1% 954 373
Auditors, Company Secretaries and Corporate 93.6% 6236 5839
Authors, and Book and Script Editors 87.9% 1921 1689
Automobile Drivers 91.2% 11402 10400
Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers 91.8% 144 132
Automotive Electricians 75.5% 1715 1294
Bakers and Pastrycooks 90.1% 7569 6818
Bank Workers 95.7% 21224 20313
Bar Attendants and Baristas 57.4% 27144 15582
Barristers 9.4% 2284 215
Beauty Therapists 65.1% 6725 4376
Betting Clerks 86.5% 912 789
Boat Builders and Shipwrights 92.4% 888 820
Bookkeepers 94.8% 22871 21673
Bricklayers and Stonemasons 90.8% 6633 6021
Bricklayers, and Carpenters and Joiners 72% 336 242
Building and Engineering Technicians 68.5% 1947 1333
Building and Plumbing Labourers 93.1% 12600 11731
Bus and Coach Drivers 92.2% 12037 11094
Butchers and Smallgoods Makers 96.4% 5539 5339
Cabinetmakers 84.6% 4172 3531
Cafe and Restaurant Managers 7.3% 14616 1065
Cafe Workers 94.6% 7987 7555
Call or Contact Centre and Customer Service 24.1% 11161 2688
Call or Contact Centre Workers 31.5% 7553 2379
Canvas and Leather Goods Makers 78% 763 595
Car Detailers 24% 4165 1000
Caravan Park and Camping Ground Managers 24.1% 1022 246
Carers and aides 21% 1618 340
Caretakers 76.2% 2409 1836
Carpenters and Joiners 41.6% 29030 12088
Checkout Operators and Office Cashiers 95.5% 31772 30356
Chefs 9.4% 18712 1758
Chemical and Materials Engineers 11.6% 596 69
Chemical, Gas, Petroleum and Power Generation 90.3% 1970 1778
Chemists, and Food and Wine Scientists 30.9% 2052 635
Chief Executives and Managing Directors 8.6% 16001 1373
Child Care Centre Managers 9.4% 2852 268
Child Carers 9.4% 35051 3294
Chiropractors and Osteopaths 3% 1405 42
Civil Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians 63.8% 2442 1558
Civil Engineering Professionals 20.1% 9732 1956
Clay, Concrete, Glass and Stone Processing Machine 93.6% 880 823
Cleaners and Laundry Workers 92.8% 9939 9219
Clerical and administrative workers 93.7% 2761 2586
Clothing Trades Workers 89.2% 2417 2155
Commercial Cleaners 89.6% 33613 30103
Commissioned Officers (Management) 24.1% 2539 612
Complementary Health Therapists 6.6% 2003 133
Computer Network Professionals 30.1% 6141 1847
Concreters 91.5% 6878 6293
Conference and Event Organisers 8.4% 5991 503
Construction Managers 10% 22873 2277
Construction Trades Workers 88.8% 576 511
Contract, Program and Project Administrators 39.1% 27999 10953
Conveyancers and Legal Executives 90.8% 3673 3336
Cooks 95.1% 15378 14631
Corporate Services Managers 10.2% 1352 138
Counsellors 6.4% 5004 318
Couriers and Postal Deliverers 95.6% 11907 11379
Court and Legal Clerks 91.3% 3380 3086
Crane, Hoist and Lift Operators 94.3% 2723 2568
Credit and Loans Officers (Aus) / Finance Clerks (NZ) 85.2% 7657 6525
Crop Farm Workers 95.3% 3611 3441
Crop Farmers 69.6% 9963 6932
Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT 27.6% 7640 2108
Debt Collectors 64.2% 2800 1798
Deck and Fishing Hands 78.6% 1568 1233
Defence Force Members - Other Ranks 18.4% 4337 797
Delivery Drivers 91.2% 10781 9834
Dental Assistants 65.1% 6003 3907
Dental Hygienists, Technicians and Therapists 38.4% 1660 638
Dental Practitioners 9.2% 3715 341
Diversional Therapists 6.6% 1527 102
Domestic Cleaners 84.8% 4483 3801
Drillers, Miners and Shot Firers 88.4% 12183 10768
Driving Instructors 10.2% 1302 132
Early Childhood (Pre-primary School) Teachers 7.9% 7621 600
Earthmoving Plant Operators 95.2% 9871 9401
Economists 23.1% 1024 236
Education Advisers and Reviewers 5.8% 2737 159
Education Aides 32.2% 15464 4982
Education Professionals 5.7% 1245 70
Electrical Distribution Trades Workers 21.2% 2950 624
Electrical Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians 31.4% 2292 721
Electrical Engineers 33.9% 4883 1656
Electricians 57.4% 32833 18858
Electronic Engineering Draftspersons and Technicians 31.4% 1520 478
Electronics Engineers 23.1% 946 219
Electronics Trades Workers 63.4% 9370 5942
Electrotechnology and Telecommunications Trades 60.2% 931 560
Engineering Managers 7.2% 4633 334
Engineering Production Workers 93.9% 6023 5658
Engineering Professionals 20.8% 6574 1364
Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians 68.4% 1665 1139
Enrolled and Mothercraft Nurses 6.6% 4651 307
Environmental Scientists 20% 4437 886
Factory Process Workers 93.2% 4307 4012
Farm, forestry and garden workers 95.1% 756 719
Farmers and Farm Managers 67% 1308 876
Fashion, Industrial and Jewellery Designers 7.4% 2570 189
Fast Food Cooks 94.8% 10208 9679
Fencers 91.5% 2420 2214
Filing and Registry Clerks 95.7% 4666 4467
Film, Television, Radio and Stage Directors 9.3% 3798 354
Finance Managers 23.6% 15747 3716
Financial Brokers 41% 6619 2712
Financial Dealers 7.8% 7686 603
Financial Investment Advisers and Managers 54.1% 11611 6280
Fire and Emergency Workers 8.2% 3985 328
Fitness Instructors 4.6% 6988 323
Floor Finishers 78.2% 2407 1883
Florists 52.8% 1700 898
Food and Drink Factory Workers 90.7% 7390 6705
Food preparation assistants 93.7% 214 200
Food Trades Assistants 91.5% 1025 937
Forestry and Logging Workers 88.4% 599 529
Forklift Drivers 92% 13604 12522
Freight and Furniture Handlers 75.2% 3495 2627
Funeral Workers 18.7% 1087 204
Gallery, Library and Museum Technicians 18.5% 1422 263
Gallery, Museum and Tour Guides 18.7% 1428 267
Gaming Workers 86.5% 1391 1203
Garden and Nursery Labourers 95.5% 7192 6870
Gardeners 69.6% 14328 9968
General Clerks 85.8% 73504 63031
General Managers 5% 14193 710
Generalist Medical Practitioners 4.3% 13892 593
Geologists and Geophysicists 45.9% 1254 575
Glaziers 91.9% 2119 1948
Graphic and Web Designers, and Illustrators 14% 13238 1857
Graphic Pre-press Trades Workers 20.4% 1163 237
Greenkeepers 69.6% 3064 2132
Hairdressers 70.5% 16631 11727
Handypersons 86.6% 9327 8074
Health and Welfare Services Managers 7.5% 5914 442
Hospitality Workers 91% 2768 2519
Hotel and Motel Managers 4% 6208 250
Hotel Service Managers 4% 1880 76
Housekeepers 93.6% 7006 6560
Human Resource Clerks 73.7% 2657 1959
Human Resource Managers 11.4% 12058 1373
Human Resource Professionals 12.2% 16649 2029
ICT Business and Systems Analysts 6.3% 7829 493
ICT Managers 9% 17534 1579
ICT Professionals 31.5% 8954 2819
ICT Sales Assistants 77.7% 5033 3912
ICT Sales Professionals 6.4% 5373 343
ICT Support and Test Engineers 61.3% 3067 1880
ICT Support Technicians 49.3% 15531 7657
ICT Trainers 15.9% 855 136
Importers, Exporters and Wholesalers 34.9% 7951 2771
Industrial Spraypainters 89.8% 1423 1278
Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers 20.6% 4842 998
Inquiry Clerks 91.8% 18493 16972
Inspectors and Regulatory Officers 86.9% 10993 9552
Insulation and Home Improvement Installers 83.6% 4356 3640
Insurance Agents 88.6% 3618 3204
Insurance Investigators, Loss Adjusters and Risk 90.8% 1591 1444
Insurance, Money Market and Statistical Clerks 95.4% 11025 10522
Interior Designers 11.3% 2455 277
Jewellers 33.2% 1358 450
Journalists and Other Writers 18.7% 8312 1552
Judicial and Other Legal Professionals 9.5% 2451 232
Keyboard Operators 94.3% 15476 14601
Kitchenhands 91.5% 26225 23984
Labourers 96.1% 7092 6818
Land Economists and Valuers 78.9% 3354 2647
Laundry Workers 86.8% 4647 4034
Librarians 23.3% 3095 722
Library Assistants 92.1% 2451 2257
Licensed Club Managers 24.1% 2639 636
Life Scientists 12.5% 1146 144
Livestock Farm Workers 95.3% 7359 7013
Livestock Farmers 10.5% 23159 2421
Machine and Stationary Plant Operators 95.5% 600 573
Machine operators 95.7% 6662 6376
Machinery operators and drivers 95.6% 3389 3240
Mail Sorters 94.8% 4093 3881
Management and Organisation Analysts 28.2% 16822 4736
Managers 10.8% 12170 1313
Manufacturers 6.8% 6394 436
Marine Transport Professionals 48.8% 1845 901
Massage Therapists 7.6% 3244 248
Meat Boners and Slicers, and Slaughterers 96.4% 1813 1747
Meat, Poultry and Seafood Process Workers 90.7% 4520 4101
Mechanical Engineering Draftspersons and 68.7% 1221 839
Media Professionals 10.9% 924 101
Medical Imaging Professionals 15.3% 4414 677
Medical Laboratory Scientists 77.9% 4549 3545
Medical Practitioners 4.2% 541 23
Medical Technicians 18.5% 6731 1242
Metal Casting, Forging and Finishing Trades Workers 95.1% 702 668
Metal Engineering Process Workers 92.8% 3072 2852
Metal Fitters and Machinists 89% 22654 20153
Middle School Teachers (Aus) / Intermediate School 7% 114 8
Mining Engineers 35.8% 1151 412
Ministers of Religion 9.4% 5498 516
Mixed Crop and Livestock Farm Workers 95.3% 1081 1030
Mixed Crop and Livestock Farmers 10.5% 11098 1160
Mobile plant operators 95.4% 1609 1535
Models and Sales Demonstrators 80.2% 3423 2746
Motor Mechanics 69.8% 24601 17168
Motor Vehicle and Vehicle Parts Salespersons 77.7% 8500 6606
Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories Fitters 84.2% 2949 2482
Music Professionals 17.3% 3061 530
Natural and Physical Science Professionals 15.1% 1671 253
Numerical Clerks 95.6% 381 364
Nurse Managers 7.1% 3892 276
Nurserypersons 69.6% 1038 722
Nursing Support and Personal Care Workers 29.7% 24235 7209
Occupational and Environmental Health Professionals 35.3% 4660 1645
Occupational Therapists 3% 2776 83
Office Managers 12.1% 34098 4116
Optometrists and Orthoptists 12% 1589 191
Other Accommodation and Hospitality Managers 21.4% 1724 368
Other Building and Engineering Technicians 49.3% 4210 2075
Other Cleaners 93.1% 2983 2778
Other Clerical and Office Support Workers 94.1% 5570 5244
Other Construction and Mining Labourers 76.1% 1660 1264
Other Education Managers 6.3% 3358 211
Other Engineering Professionals 16.8% 1883 317
Other Factory Process Workers 93% 3192 2969
Other Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers 92.8% 3130 2905
Other Health Diagnostic and Promotion Professionals 4.6% 1576 72
Other Hospitality Workers 92.2% 1350 1245
Other Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers 17% 17902 3051
Other Information and Organisation Professionals 26.9% 5724 1537
Other Machine Operators 89.2% 3278 2925
Other Medical Practitioners 6.8% 2819 192
Other Miscellaneous Clerical and Administrative 85.8% 6108 5239
Other Miscellaneous Labourers 94.7% 14509 13740
Other Miscellaneous Technicians and Trades Workers 74% 4794 3549
Other Mobile Plant Operators 95.6% 2607 2491
Other Natural and Physical Science Professionals 11.8% 1711 202
Other Personal Service Workers 30% 2948 884
Other Sales Assistants and Salespersons 95.1% 4893 4652
Other Sales Support Workers 94.5% 682 645
Other Specialist Managers 5.6% 14101 786
Other Stationary Plant Operators 91.9% 5428 4988
Outdoor Adventure Guides 4.6% 506 23
Packers 71.2% 15027 10704
Packers and Product Assemblers 78.2% 110 86
Painting Trades Workers 89.4% 10817 9676
Panelbeaters 82.2% 4019 3304
Panelbeaters, and Vehicle Body Builders, Trimmers 87.5% 418 366
Paper and Wood Processing Machine Operators 94.2% 1880 1771
Paving and Surfacing Labourers 92.2% 2245 2070
Payroll Clerks 91% 8180 7441
Performing Arts Technicians 38.8% 4018 1559
Personal Assistants 93.3% 16587 15473
Personal Care Consultants 65.1% 1199 780
Pharmacists 3.1% 6018 185
Pharmacy Sales Assistants 77.7% 10239 7957
Photographers 11.6% 3209 373
Photographic Developers and Printers 59.7% 678 405
Physiotherapists 4.8% 4855 235
Plasterers 83% 5969 4953
Plastics and Rubber Factory Workers 92.8% 653 606
Plastics and Rubber Production Machine Operators 95.4% 2268 2163
Plumbers 75% 17987 13487
Podiatrists 3% 760 23
Policy and Planning Managers 10.2% 4526 462
Practice Managers 90.4% 4887 4420
Precision Metal Trades Workers 88.2% 2168 1911
Primary Products Inspectors 87.4% 1066 931
Primary School Teachers 7% 41799 2913
Print Finishers and Screen Printers 92.5% 1078 997
Printers 70.6% 4258 3008
Printing Assistants and Table Workers 92.8% 1539 1429
Printing Trades Workers 84.7% 132 112
Prison Officers 7.8% 4172 324
Private Tutors and Teachers 4.5% 10271 461
Product Assemblers 92.6% 6191 5735
Product Quality Controllers 93% 2841 2642
Production Managers 6.8% 13659 932
Professionals 9.2% 10072 930
Psychiatrists 4.3% 766 33
Psychologists 6.9% 6453 446
Public Relations Professionals 15% 5645 849
Purchasing and Supply Logistics Clerks 95.6% 21289 20345
Railway Track Workers 92.2% 1397 1288
Real Estate Sales Agents 31.2% 20521 6399
Receptionists 25.9% 42494 10990
Recycling and Rubbish Collectors 10% 784 79
Registered Nurses 6.7% 63819 4249
Research and Development Managers 8.9% 3212 286
Retail and Wool Buyers 31.2% 1665 519
Retail Managers 12.1% 60019 7274
Retail Supervisors 8.2% 7586 624
Road and Rail Drivers 92.6% 3763 3486
Roof Tilers 86.7% 2114 1833
Safety Inspectors 62% 872 541
Sales Assistants (General) 65.1% 138388 90050
Sales assistants and salespersons 86.2% 6161 5313
Sales Representatives 33.3% 31133 10374
Sales workers 81.7% 1353 1105
School Principals 6.3% 6226 391
School Teachers 6.1% 6692 405
Science Technicians 53.9% 3379 1822
Secondary School Teachers 3.3% 43253 1427
Secretaries 87.7% 26461 23196
Security Officers and Guards 85% 13872 11788
Service Station Attendants 95.9% 2431 2331
Sewing Machinists 93.8% 3067 2878
Shearers 95.3% 1287 1226
Sheetmetal Trades Workers 82.2% 1914 1574
Shelf Fillers 83.9% 12372 10377
Signwriters 95% 1650 1567
Social Professionals 50% 2811 1406
Social Workers 7% 4331 304
Software and Applications Programmers 56.2% 22890 12861
Solicitors 9.4% 18515 1740
Special Care Workers 8.7% 644 56
Special Education Teachers 7% 5866 410
Specialist Managers 6.8% 6540 444
Specialist Physicians 4.3% 1806 77
Speech Professionals and Audiologists 5.9% 2052 122
Sports Coaches, Instructors and Officials 36.7% 8955 3284
Sportspersons 48.3% 2357 1138
Storepersons 95% 32598 30956
Street Vendors and Related Salespersons 47.9% 2171 1040
Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers 95.3% 15575 14850
Structural Steel Construction Workers 91.8% 4277 3927
Supply and Distribution Managers 34.9% 8942 3117
Surgeons 4.3% 1548 66
Survey Interviewers 82.4% 788 649
Surveyors and Spatial Scientists 83.7% 3262 2731
Switchboard Operators 80.5% 1220 982
Teachers of English to Speakers of Other Languages 13.7% 1871 257
Technical Sales Representatives 20.4% 7755 1581
Technicians and Trades Workers 90% 6590 5931
Telecommunications Engineering Professionals 33.9% 3770 1279
Telecommunications Technical Specialists 75.6% 1393 1052
Telecommunications Trades Workers 66.6% 5257 3500
Telemarketers 90.4% 2612 2362
Tertiary Education Teachers 15.9% 238 38
Textile and Footwear Production Machine Operators 91.5% 973 890
Ticket Salespersons 91.7% 5818 5337
Timber and Wood Process Workers 92.8% 1675 1555
Toolmakers and Engineering Patternmakers 91.6% 1577 1445
Tourism and Travel Advisers 24.9% 7081 1767
Train and Tram Drivers 93.7% 3503 3282
Training and Development Professionals 21.6% 6391 1383
Transport and Despatch Clerks 90.2% 9182 8279
Transport Services Managers 34.9% 4207 1466
Travel Attendants 9.4% 3498 329
Truck Drivers 78.8% 43830 34534
University Lecturers and Tutors 15.9% 13419 2137
Upholsterers 60% 847 508
Urban and Regional Planners 33% 3003 990
Vehicle Body Builders and Trimmers 82.9% 1434 1189
Vehicle Painters 89.8% 2926 2628
Vending Machine Attendants 87.2% 1427 1244
Veterinarians 9.1% 2155 196
Veterinary Nurses 91.7% 2230 2046
Visual Arts and Crafts Professionals 19% 1640 311
Visual Merchandisers 11.3% 1365 154
Vocational Education Teachers (Aus) / Polytechnic 15.9% 11908 1896
Waiters 93% 27673 25747
Wall and Floor Tilers 86.7% 4001 3467
Welfare Support Workers 6% 14846 894
Welfare, Recreation and Community Arts Workers 7% 6485 455
Wood Machinists and Other Wood Trades Workers 92.7% 1456 1350
Interactive: Richard Lama. Source: Future workforce trends in NSW briefing paper 2015
Across the state, butchers, smallgoods makers, abattoir workers and labourers have more than a 96 per cent probability of losing their jobs as technology dramatically transforms entire occupations and industries.
Examples include paralegal work being replaced by sophisticated algorithms and law enforcement officers being ousted by cheap and convenient camera sensors.
Young workers are in a particularly precarious position, with the report citing a Foundation of Young Australians estimate that up to 70 per cent of 15- to 24-year-olds enter occupations that are highly likely to be absorbed by automation.
Likely winners from technological shifts will be the wealthiest electorates in the state, including Vaucluse, Balmain, North Shore, Coogee and Newtown, where a majority of workers are professionals and managers, occupations that are less easily automated. Chiropractors, occupational therapists, hotel managers and school teachers are among the safest jobs, with a less than 4 per cent probability of being lost to technology.
The dramatic findings suggest a future in which knowledge workers, including engineers and scientists, will drive innovation in Sydney's economy, leaving workers with routine and semi-routine tasks in the cold should they not retrain and acquire new skills. Adaptation will be critical to dampen the potential havoc wreaked by wide-scale job losses and skills shortages.
Despite the paper's bleak prognosis, experts claim the shift will have long-term positive effects that outweigh negative consequences of changes.
"New technologies bring many positive developments to society, including economic prosperity, new types of work, and an increasingly educated (and potentially happier) workforce," writes author Chris Angus.
Federal government commitments to science, technology, engineering and mathematics education, initiatives for startups and programs to help unemployed people gain new skills for jobs in those areas and industries most vulnerable to job losses are singled out as ways to deal with workforce disruption.
While Mr Angus warns that the figures should not be over-analysed, the conclusions beg the question as to how a knowledge-intensive hub pegged for Glebe Island in the Bays Precinct near central Sydney will benefit those most disrupted by technology further west.
Wayne Fallon of Western Sydney University's School of Business researches business trends in the region. He said the findings are only the "tip of an iceberg" with shortfalls in the capacity many small businesses have to react to digitisation.
The state has gone some way in planning for the shift, including the 2012 NSW Digital Economy Industry Action Plan, 2014's Plan for Growing Sydney, the newly announced Bays Precinct Transformation Plan and the establishment of a $25 million Jobs of Tomorrow Scholarship Fund in the NSW government's 2015-16 budget.
Pat Fensham, leader for Urban Planning, Policy and Governance at SGS Economics and Planning said that the outsourcing of service jobs higher up the value chain, such as low-level architecture jobs, means that traditionally high-skilled industries will not wholly escape the shift, either.
And while the report echoes a widely held belief that computerisation will lead to job scarcity, he added that such concerns are not new.
"It partly ignores the fact that we could have almost said the same thing 10 to 15 years ago. There have been a whole load of new jobs created that we couldn't imagine then."
Acting minister for Western Sydney Stuart Ayres did not respond to requests for comment.
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