The China Policy of Wishful Thinking
Source: Michael Auslin
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meets with U.S. President Barack Obama's National Security Advisor Susan Rice in Beijing, capital of China, Sept. 9, 2014. Zuma Press
Is Barack Obama's China policy one of cold and calculated realpolitik, or mushy wishful thinking? In Beijing this week, his top national security aide Susan Rice all but ignored controversial topics while feeding the dream that Beijing and Washington can create a "new type of great power relationship," as the Chinese are wont to call it. She left China's capital with nothing but a rain-check promising better relations in the future.
Given its failures in Europe and the Middle East, it is understandable why the Obama administration would grab onto China as a life preserver in the stormy seas of foreign relations. Showcasing productive ties with the world's second largest economy and second most powerful military may convince skeptical Americans that Washington hasn't entirely lost the world's respect or undermined American interests.
It is also easy to put relations in Asia on autopilot when the rest of Eurasia seems consumed by flames. After months of dithering, President Obama is finally taking more aggressive action against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Meanwhile devastating Russian counterattacks stopped the momentum of Ukrainian forces and forced Kiev into a cease-fire equivalent to a surrender.
Yet all is not so peaceful in Asia. Last week China essentially repudiated its 1984 agreement with Britain over Hong Kong, announcing that there would be no free elections for the territory's leader in 2017. Instead, only a handful of candidates approved by Beijing will be allowed on the ballot. Such a move could translate into further control over local government and attempts to cow local journalists and judges. China's central government apparently has no qualms about sending such a clear anti-democratic message not only to Hong Kong but to Taiwan, another liberal territory over which Beijing wants to regain its rule.
Realpolitik may explain why Hong Kong played almost no role in Ms. Rice's talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and others. The White House seems not to care that the West's future lies with elections, while China has proven that democracy has no future as long as the Communist Party remains in power. The stark difference between East and West showcases the triumph of power over principle in Asia.
Yet such a cold approach only works when there is an equally assertive strategy to promote American interests. But amid distractions in Ukraine and Iraq, U.S. policy in Asia appears to be little more than an attempt to hold the line―as opposed to promoting liberalism by supporting China's nervous neighbors and ramming through the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade pact among 12 Pacific Rim nations.
The unseriousness of Ms. Rice's visit was punctuated by her cringe-inducing claim that "there is virtually no problem of global significance that can't be better resolved when the United States and China are working together at the same table." This just days after Beijing crushed hopes for democracy in Hong Kong and weeks after a Chinese fighter jet flew dangerously close to an American military surveillance plane in international airspace.
The Obama administration is underestimating how revisionist China is, just as it underestimated Vladimir Putin and ISIS. China plays the long game. Mr. Xi may not march his troops onto foreign soil anytime soon, but he is steadily expanding his country's influence and feels comfortable breaking international agreements, as over Hong Kong. Either the White House will acquiesce to the slow reduction of America's role in Asia, or it will be forced to show which principles it will uphold through clear action.
By failing to condemn Beijing's behavior or offer coherent alternatives, Mr. Obama is marching down the same dangerous path that has brought such woe to Ukraine and the Middle East.
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