Mobile apps aren't dead — they're evolving
Source: Andrew Meola
We've discussed how the mobile app boom has ended, and some have gone as far as to say that mobile apps are dead and buried. But one analyst doesn't agree.
Jackdaw analyst Jan Dawson said in a research note that apps are here to stay despite much discussion to the contrary. Analysts have been split on if the slowing growth rate in the top 100 apps in the App Store means that apps are no longer the primary platform for mobile engagement, or if consumers' general dissatisfaction with apps would cause them to stop using these apps altogether.
And some analysts have even proposed that chat apps and bots would outright replace most apps. But Dawson believes that this chatter is largely unfounded and that apps are evolving rather than dying.
App download growth in mature markets has undeniably slowed, but this may not be a doomsday scenario for apps for three reasons. First, payouts to developers are growing, as Apple has reported that it is about to eclipse $50 billion in this regard. This leads to gross revenue of approximately $70 billion from the App Store.
And the number of users connected to the App Store is at an all-time high even though downloads are slowing. So downloads and revenue from the App Store are not expected to shrink anytime soon as the app market matures.
Second, bot technology is still new despite the hype surrounding it, so most of these bots will not replace the most lucrative apps. Consider that 75% of app store revenue comes from games, which bots cannot replace. And Dawson points out that bots would not affect productivity apps, social networking apps, video apps, and more.
Finally, apps are constantly evolving even as their popularity fluctuates, which means they should be able to resist new models that arise. Dawson points to Apple's decision to open iMessage, Siri, and Maps earlier this month as an example of this.
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