Apple And Google Seek To Defy 10-Year Smartphone OS Life Cyc
Source: Elizabeth Woyke
There are some universally-agreed upon trends in technology, such as Moore’s Law. A newer but perhaps equally intriguing industry observation relates to smartphone operating systems. It posits that these OSes have just a 10-year life cycle.
A chart illustrating the 10-year life cycle for smartphone operating systems.
This trend doesn’t have a catchy name but could have important implications for Apple and Google, which are currently the world’s most popular mobile operating systems. Apple launched its first iPhone in June 2007. That makes Apple’s mobile operating system, iOS, four-and-a-half years old now. Google unveiled its first Android phone in Sept. 2008, making Android a little over three years old.
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By the logic of the 10-year life cycle, iOS and Android are nearing their apex in terms of market share, after which they will decline. “History shows that operating systems peak in the middle of a 10-year cycle,” wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Sue in a Jan. 19 note to investors that highlighted the life cycle trend. So, while Apple and Android have “solid momentum and broad-based ecosystems” including at least 500,000 mobile applications each, “sustainability beyond five years remains to be seen,” wrote Sue.
Apple and Android are far ahead now, but other operating systems, like Microsoft’s revamped Windows Phone software are “gaining operator and manufacturer interest,” noted Sue. In addition, new operating systems like the open-source Tizen project headed by Samsung and Intel are “beginning to percolate,” wrote Sue. The first Tizen devices will likely debut later this year.
Market researcher Strategy Analytics, which helped conceptualize the 10-year life cycle idea, likens it to the phases outlined in The Innovator’s Dilemma. Clayton M. Christensen’s classic book described how successful companies can lose their market leadership or even disappear if they don’t shake up their business practices and embrace disruption.
“No single platform has consistently dominated for eternity,” said Alex Spektor, a Strategy Analytics Associate Director, in an interview. “Something better and newer comes along and pushes it out of leadership position.”
“The question for the next five years of the smartphone industry,” Spektor added, “is whether Apple and Android can maintain their peak market share or whether new platforms will muscle in.”
Strategy Analytics’ chart of the life cycle (shown above) shows four smartphone operating systems already at “Year 10” and in decline: Research In Motion’s BlackBerry OS, Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, Palm’s eponymous OS and Nokia’s Symbian. In contrast, iOS and Android are pictured growing quickly, with no signs of a plateau or falloff yet.
There are some important caveats to the chart and the 10-year life cycle theory in general. The chart only depicts the North American market. As Spektor noted, the trajectories of the various operating systems would look different for the global smartphone market. Symbian, for instance, would show a bigger growth curve since it is much more popular outside the U.S. than within.
The chart is also a simplified view of the smartphone industry/history. No mention is made of the 2009 Palm OS transition to webOS, Nokia’s ongoing conversion from Symbian to Windows Phone, RIM’s phase-out of BlackBerry OS to BlackBerry 10/QNX or Microsoft’s 2010 shift from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone.
Those moves are “an important clarification” for the life cycle chart, acknowledged Spektor. After operating systems drop from their 5-year peak, companies often move to refresh or replace them. “Microsoft’s Windows Phone philosophy is totally different [from Windows Mobile]…Microsoft is thinking in a different way about this segment, post-iPhone,” noted Spektor. A revised chart would show Windows Phone as a new market entrant, at the beginning of its 10-year life cycle.
Accumulating 10 years in the market doesn’t mean an operating system’s market share falls to zero, either. BlackBerry, for example, has dropped from its pinnacle but continues to enjoy a strong presence with major North American carriers, said Spektor. “The [Year 10] outcome isn’t the same for all platforms,” he added.
It remains to be seen whether the 10-year life cycle is inevitable or the byproduct of corporate blunders. Management changes, funding issues and ill-timed carrier partnerships sunk Palm’s OS efforts. RIM and Nokia were slow to update their respective operating systems, costing them users in mature markets like North America. Microsoft’s Windows Mobile was so bloated that the company itself realized it needed to start completely fresh with Windows Phone.
Apple and Google haven’t exhibited these faults so far in iOS or Android. OS providers that continue to come out with innovative concepts and features may be able to buck the 10-year curse.
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