Is Another Version of Android too Many Versions of Android?
Source: Ewan Spence
Most people struggled to not say it, but after Mobile World Congress the next build of Android, v5.0, looks set to debut in the Autumn. Expect lots of noise from tech reporting circles and at least one “hero” device that will deliberately not be from Motorola Mobility. But in the short term it doesn’t really matter. Android’s lead time, added to the lengthy contracts most smartphone users have signed up to, means the impact of v5.0 on the market might not be seen for close to two years.
I picked up my Galaxy Tab eight months old, and I just got the update from 2.2 to 2.3 in January. Soon there will be three major steps between that device and the cutting edge with no upgrade path. That makes me feel really wanted as a consumer. Google have paid lip service to keeping people on the upgrade path of Android in the past, but actions speak louder than press conferences about the Google Update Alliance.
I’m not expecting things to change very soon. While Google will ultimately make their money from the advertising and profiling of millions of Android users, their primary customers are the handset manufacturers. Thanks to the explosion of smartphones, Android is in a spec war to attract customers. Bigger screens. More advanced camera technology. Multi-core processors. Faster chipsets. Better radios. Because bigger numbers sell more phones there needs to be a way to keep devices with slightly bigger spec numbers as the thing to have, which allows networks to sell more phones and tie people into the 24 month long contracts. Hence the constant push for “New Android”.
I’d wager that the majority of Android sales nowadays aren’t people specifically seeking out the latest Galaxy or Titan (although those people do exist), but are picking up whichever handset they are directed to by sales staff. Want a good camera? Try this. A nice email machine? There’s a great machine over here. That it’s an Android device is inconsequential to the sales team or the end user. And that means two years down the line, the majority don’t care they are still on Éclair, Froyo, Engelbert, or whatever cute names come out of Mountain View.
Who does it matter to? The influencers, the bloggers, and the commentators. A group that’s not activating 800,000 handsets a day. All they do is keep Android in the news (as opposed to keeping HTC or Samsung at the top of the list). That’s why you can hear so much noise over all these version numbers, updates, and promoting the latest version.
Will anyone seriously jump in with both feet and code for version 5 during 2012 ? Developers focus on the biggest slice of Android action, and target their work there. And that means version 2.3, which accounts for around 40% of the currently active Android handsets (followed closely by v2.2). Write for those device and you’ll have the least amount of headaches over compatibility. Of course they still need to fight over the various implementations from each manufacturer… then their UI layers… then the additional bits and pieces added for each of the networks.
Another version of Android doesn’t complicate things much more than they are at the moment, because developers are going to ignore it, the mobile networks will just take the next spec jump in handsets no matter where it comes from, and users are locked in for two years anyway so it comes down to what’s in store as the contract ends.
The new version number creates new devices, which saturates the market with Android devices and drowning out other potential smartphone choices in store. It services the conveyor belt of new devices which are “a bit better than the one from six months ago” and keeps people buying. Ultimately that’s what Google need to make their core advertising business work in mobile. As many people buying anything that has Android in it, to deliver them as many eyeballs as humanly possible.
The only place for version numbers in that equation is to make sure there is always something “new” for people to buy and read their email and update their Facebook status on.
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