Tech World Re-Imagines Everything Amid Change
Source: Andy Goldberg
The relentless march of technology is just getting started, and the pace is quickening by the day, tech pundits say. The biggest change in the coming years will be the widespread adoption of smartphones of all shapes and sizes. The emergence of the ubiquitous data cloud, where data can be stored, has already the most basic forms of human behavior.
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." The saying was coined by pioneering computer scientist Alan Kay, who followed his own maxim by being one of the first people to design a laptop and a graphical operating system, among many inventions.
Looking into the future, Kay's maxim is worth remembering because the biggest changes that will affect the technology world have already been invented. Now they just have to spread.
Mary Meeker, legendary tech analyst turned venture capitalist, outlined the biggest disruptions in a technology talk in early December at Stanford University.
The world is in the midst of a "re-imagination of nearly everything," Meeker said. From health care and education, to the way people interact with computers, process information Relevant Products/Services and navigate their way around the world, the relentless march of technology is just getting started, and the pace is quickening by the day.
The biggest change in the coming years, according to Meeker, will be the widespread adoption of smartphones of all shapes and sizes.
While there are already more than 1 billion smartphones in use around the world, they still represent only 20 percent of the number of mobile Relevant Products/Services phones in use. That means that some 4 billion more people will upgrade to smart devices in the next few years, triggering deep changes in the integration Relevant Products/Services and use of the Internet in people's lives.
The mobile revolution combined with social networks to help foment the Arab Spring. With the fastest rates of smartphone adoption coming in places such as China and Iran, the technology could bring further challenges to authoritarian regimes, Meeker predicted.
On the consumer side, the spread of the Internet and the emergence of the ubiquitous data Relevant Products/Services cloud Relevant Products/Services, where information can be stored, has already altered some of the most basic forms of human services and behavior.
The most adept users of smartphones and broadband exhibit an "asset-light" lifestyle, Meeker said.
"It's easier for people to get what they want when they want it by buying... access to a vast range of goods and services -- such as all the movies on Netflix -- rather than for ownership of a particular object or title," she explained.
Not only movies, but also music and other entertainment content Relevant Products/Services are obvious examples of this new access model. Car-sharing Relevant Products/Services and vacation rental schemes also fit the bill.
The model even applies to ways to save time. With apps like TaskRabbit and Zaarly growing in popularity, it's easier than ever to find people to perform personal tasks and chores.
While that may be great news for the time-challenged, the exponential growth of the mobile web Relevant Products/Services is bad news for Microsoft Relevant Products/Services.
Windows, which once held a near monopoly in personal computers, is now a minority player. Android and Apple's iOS now represent a combined 45 percent of the market for operating systems, while Windows accounts for 35 percent. With the number of Android and iOS devices growing by more than 1 million every day, Microsoft's share and its influence are going to keep shrinking.
Meeker warned against thinking that this "re-imagination of nearly everything" will take a longtime to play out.
With the rate of adoption of new devices continuing to accelerate, she said "the magnitude of upcoming change will be stunning," driven by a perfect storm of conditions, including "ultra-competitive markets, fearless entrepreneurs and consumers, readily available capital and low start-up costs."
But there are many things that could stand in the way of technological progress, such as political problems, social conflicts and economic crises, she warned.
"There is a lot to be excited about in tech," Meeker said. But there is also "a lot to be worried about in other areas."
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